Sherlock Holmes, the fictitious super sleuth, was famous for his deductive powers. So, what is the definition of "deduction"? According to Dictionary.com: " (logic) a process of reasoning in which a conclusion follows necessarily from the premises presented, so that the conclusion cannot be false if the premises are true".
A premise, is an assumption that something is true, and an assumption is something assumed to be true, even without proof.
Example: All birds have beaks.(premise) This creature has a beak.(2nd premise) Therefore this must be a bird.(deduction)
Right? Logical? Not so fast, Scooter.
An octopus also has a beak, but it sure isn't a ...bird.
What us humans often seem to do, is to reverse a premise, in this case convert: "all birds have beaks" to "all beaked animals are birds". This reversing of the premise is plausible for those of us who perhaps don't know that there are other creatures that also have beaks, but it has changed the premise and the premise is no longer true.
("All swans are white", used to be a true statement until someone noticed that for example, in Australia there are actually black swans...)
This long introduction (sorry) leads me to my topic today which is: how easy it is to come to a "false" conclusion by not having all necessary information.
Before we arrive at a conclusion, according to those in the know, we go through a battle between intuition and logic. No matter how much we may like to think that when we make our deductions we do so by basing our choices on solid, rational, and logical thinking, but according to Prof Daniel Kahneman at Princeton University, this, we may have to reconsider. He says: "There's the deliberate, logical part of your mind that is capable of analysing a problem and coming up with a rational answer.
This is the part of your mind that you are aware of. But then there is another system in your mind that is intuitive, fast and automatic. This fast way of thinking is incredibly powerful, but totally hidden. It is so powerful, it is actually responsible for most of the things that you say, do, think and believe.
And yet you have no idea this is happening. This system is your hidden auto-pilot, and it has a mind of its own."
Most of the time, our intuitive mind is in control and is pretty much in charge of the many thousands of decisions (deductions) we make every day. Problem is, that we all have cognitive biases and they affect almost all of what we say and do, including our beliefs, opinions, and decisions. Without us being aware.
According to Daniel Kahneman: "if we think that we have reasons for what we believe, that is often a mistake. Our beliefs and our wishes and our hopes are not always anchored in reasons".
So what are these cognitive biases that cause us so much trouble?
Wikipedia: "A cognitive bias refers to a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment, whereby inferences about other people and situations may be drawn in an illogical fashion." Some examples: confirmation bias - the tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, focusing effect - prediction bias occurring when people place too much importance on one aspect of an event; causes error in accurately predicting the utility of a future outcome, framing - drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how that information is presented........and many, many more.
Biases are in my opinion, insidious and often more visible to others than to ourselves.
"What do you mean? How am I biased against xxx?" "Well, every time you talk about xxx, you don't seem to consider different perspectives...." According to my research on biases, suggestion seem to be that they are so deeply ingrained in our thinking patterns that we are oblivious to them. Which brings me back to deduction. What if some of our deductions are based on false premises?
(Premises, as I mentioned in the beginning, are only assumed to be true...)
If we are seeking to understand people better, ourselves better, the world better, then beginning by asking ourselves how we came to hold the views/opinions/beliefs in the first place, may be a good place to begin. Next, it may be helpful to ask ourselves if our views are founded on solid, verifiable and truthful sources. Finally, perhaps it may also behove us to ask ourselves: do I need to change or alter in any way how I view some things?
As a kid, our family visited a large Fairground in Copenhagen. Standing at the top of a huge and seriously exciting slippery-slide, I asked my dad if he was going to go down the slippery-slide as well. He answered: "You will not understand this right now, but one day going down a slippery-slide will no longer be exciting or fun for you."
He was right.
"Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth."
(Marcus Aurelius)
Biases are in my opinion, insidious and often more visible to others than to ourselves.
"What do you mean? How am I biased against xxx?" "Well, every time you talk about xxx, you don't seem to consider different perspectives...." According to my research on biases, suggestion seem to be that they are so deeply ingrained in our thinking patterns that we are oblivious to them. Which brings me back to deduction. What if some of our deductions are based on false premises?
(Premises, as I mentioned in the beginning, are only assumed to be true...)
If we are seeking to understand people better, ourselves better, the world better, then beginning by asking ourselves how we came to hold the views/opinions/beliefs in the first place, may be a good place to begin. Next, it may be helpful to ask ourselves if our views are founded on solid, verifiable and truthful sources. Finally, perhaps it may also behove us to ask ourselves: do I need to change or alter in any way how I view some things?
As a kid, our family visited a large Fairground in Copenhagen. Standing at the top of a huge and seriously exciting slippery-slide, I asked my dad if he was going to go down the slippery-slide as well. He answered: "You will not understand this right now, but one day going down a slippery-slide will no longer be exciting or fun for you."
He was right.
"Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth."
(Marcus Aurelius)
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